03.02.2026
Market commentary on heating oil 03.02.2026
Exactly one month ago, President Maduro was kidnapped from Venezuela, then Greenland was on the verge of being sold, and last week there were fairly concrete expectations of a US attack on Iran. So, there was certainly no sign of a January slump in global politics; the pace of near-escalations remains breathtaking. Of course, the oil market has not been spared from this turmoil.
Developments in Venezuela and Iran do harbour a certain downside potential for oil prices, but only if the political situation in these countries stabilises again after a possible upheaval – a scenario that seems realistic only in the medium or even long term. In general, an oversupply of oil products is expected in the current year, mainly because the global economy is still not humming along as desired, causing demand to stagnate.
There are therefore good reasons to expect falling prices, but the current reality is different: latent political nervousness is causing uncertainty and a lack of planning security on the trading markets. To make matters worse, the ongoing drought and low water levels on the Rhine are leading to massively higher freight rates. Prices are therefore currently significantly higher than they were in December.