18.11.2025
Market commentary on heating oil 18.11.2025
It is well known that the oil trade is infiltrated by speculators. Market participants who are less interested in the actual trading business than in the profits they can try to achieve from short-term price movements. Accordingly, periods of calm are rather the exception, as no significant returns can be achieved during these stable periods. Politically, the mood is somewhat more relaxed at the moment: Donald Trump seems to be taking a short breather after the 43-day shutdown, there is hardly any news from the Middle East, and people have become accustomed to the war in Ukraine.
And yet there is movement on the oil market, with prices currently rising sharply. This is despite the growing conviction that there could be an oversupply in the coming year due to an imbalance between production and consumption, which would then lead to falling prices. In the short term, however, greater weight is obviously being given to the fact that the oil embargo against the Russian state-owned companies Lukoil and Rosneft is coming into force these days and that winter is slowly but surely setting in across large parts of the northern hemisphere. And that President Trump is giving his Russian counterpart Putin the cold shoulder, which probably rules out any imminent solution to the armed conflict. In addition, China has been hoarding large quantities of crude oil for the past six months in order to provide itself with additional strategic security.
All in all, the current upward trend does not appear to be very broadly based; it would not be surprising if the somewhat overheated mood were to calm down soon.