10.02.2026
Market commentary on heating oil 10.02.2026
Negotiations between Iran and the US began last Friday. In Muscat, the capital of Oman, the respective delegations negotiated the framework conditions with the Omani foreign minister. Iran had apparently only agreed to negotiate because external pressure had been steadily increasing in recent weeks. While the response from Europe and, for example, the UN was unsurprisingly muted following Iran's massacres of its own population, US intervention still seemed entirely realistic until recently. Negotiations are now underway, even though, according to information from Israeli intelligence circles, a military attack on the Persian state has not yet been ruled out completely. In addition to this tense situation in the Middle East, production losses at Kazakhstan's most important oil field in Tengiz and new EU sanctions against Russia are also contributing to a stable underlying tone on the market.
On the demand side, however, there remains a latent concern that the global economy will not really pick up speed, which would result in stagnating consumption. Added to this is the fact that the OPEC oil cartel is continuously reducing its production cuts, which, according to forecasts, could lead to an oversupply in the current year. The current weather conditions are also having a bearish effect on domestic prices: due to relatively regular rainfall, the low water situation on the Rhine appears to be gradually improving. The corresponding freight rates are already significantly lower again: a rate of CHF 40 per ton is now being charged.