12.08.2026
Market commentary on heating oil 12.08.2026
“Rien ne va plus” isn't just something you hear in a casino; it's also increasingly coming to symbolize the situation in the conflict between Iran and the U.S.
Officially, there are repeated reports of mutual overtures to return to the negotiating table, yet at the same time, every statement reveals the irreconcilability of the respective positions. As if that weren’t enough, the flow of goods through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely restricted due to the Iranian threat. In recent weeks, the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have also intensified their provocations in the Bab al-Mandab Strait between East Africa and the Arabian Peninsula, thereby massively destabilizing and disrupting shipping logistics there as well.
In the current stalemate, the independent observer has by now almost completely run out of ideas as to what developments might lead to a de-escalation or even a resolution of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. In various Gulf states—such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates—efforts have been underway for some time now to shift exports away from the contested chokepoint in the Strait of Hormuz, given the traditionally tense relationship with Iran. As early as next year, this could enable the export of considerable volumes of goods to the rest of the world via new pipeline systems, rail networks, and access roads. While this reallocation involves significant additional costs in many cases, it is, of course, still considerably more lucrative than the current trade blockade.
Domestic heating oil and fuel prices have now risen significantly again following the peak prices in the spring and a massive easing in the second half of June. This is primarily due to the war in the Middle East, but also to the exorbitantly high freight rates on the Rhine. Unsurprisingly, the near-total lack of rainfall over the past several weeks has led to low water levels, meaning inland waterway vessels can now transport only small amounts of cargo. In the middle section of the river near Kaub in Rhineland-Palatinate, there is even a risk of a total closure in the coming days. Even though the forecast for next week finally promises rainfall, the situation will not return to normal anytime soon due to the very low water levels - including in the lakes.