17.02.2026
Market commentary on heating oil 17.02.2026
After a period of disproportionately high rainfall, water levels on the Rhine have now returned to normal, bringing a two-month period of low water to an end. As a result, cargo ships can now be fully loaded again, which has naturally led to a massive drop in transport rates from Rotterdam to Basel. This development is the main reason why we are currently seeing significantly lower heating oil prices than in recent weeks. The market is thus picking up speed again: after many experts predicted an oversupply for 2026, a softer undertone is latently noticeable.
However, the big question mark is the day-to-day business of global politics: there are plenty of smoldering flashpoints and, as recent weeks and months have shown, these can escalate at any time. Currently, the conflict over Iran is supporting stock market prices: although negotiations between the US and the mullah regime are ongoing, threats and saber rattling are continuing in parallel.
Iran announced today that the Strait of Hormuz, a strait in the Persian Gulf of great strategic importance, would have to be closed at short notice for a military manoeuvre by the Revolutionary Guards. Such actions naturally have great potential for provocation and immediately cause a lot of movement and nervousness on the global trading markets.