17.03.2026
Market commentary on heating oil 17.03.2026
It sounds crazy, but the world is slowly beginning to get used to the military actions surrounding Iran. Especially as, in recent days, no clear trend seems to have emerged as to the possible outcomes of this conflict. Is the overthrow of the murderous regime realistic, or are the mullahs still firmly in the saddle? Will the US-Israeli alliance succeed in weakening the Iranian power apparatus through air strikes to such an extent that the Persian population dares to emerge from the underground? And for how much longer will the Iranians be able to control the Strait of Hormuz militarily almost at will, thereby blocking the flow of goods from the Persian Gulf? Many questions remain unanswered, and even Donald Trump now seems somewhat less certain of victory than he did a few days ago.
The fact is that oil prices are naturally remaining at significantly higher levels due to shipping traffic through the approximately 50-kilometre-wide strait being virtually paralysed. After all, 20 per cent of global production is normally transported via this route. These price surges are causing discontent in the rest of the world; rising energy costs naturally fail to inspire enthusiasm anywhere. So there is plenty of anger all round: whilst some fear for their lives, others are getting worked up about high fuel prices.
Domestically, heating oil prices have now risen to over 125 Swiss francs, the highest level in more than three years. At least the potential for further rises no longer seems huge; prices have been moving in a sideways channel for the past few days. This is, of course, provided that the war in the Middle East does not escalate further: an expansion of hostilities to other countries or even terrorist attacks in the Western world could once again dramatically increase the impact – including on oil prices.