26.03.2026
Market commentary on heating oil 26.03.2026
The situation regarding the war in Iran is now more confusing than ever before. And as is always the case with military conflicts, it is not at all easy to obtain reliable information about current events. While left-leaning media outlets tend to view any actions by Donald Trump critically—in part because they hope to see the unpopular American president fail—conservative observers comment on the situation with significantly more sympathy. Independent journalism seems to be increasingly scarce these days: If wishful thinking is the father of the thought, a bias is, of course, inevitable.
Last weekend, the situation initially escalated following Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum, but then eased significantly again quite suddenly. By Tuesday, there was talk of negotiations, which sparked the first glimmers of hope for a lasting de-escalation. Since yesterday, however, disillusionment has been spreading again: the positions seem too far apart to even begin to imagine a positive outcome.
Even though there are isolated warnings that, if conditions in the Strait of Hormuz remain unchanged, supply bottlenecks are to be expected in the near future, there isn’t yet widespread anxiety on the logistics front. At least in the short term, there are sufficient reserves to act as a buffer: However, this cannot prevent prices from remaining at a significantly higher level, and consumer anxiety is therefore inevitable!