27.10.2025
Market commentary on heating oil 27.10.2025
It was just over a week ago that oil prices were moving steadily downward in a stable channel. They reached a temporary annual low of just above the psychological barrier of US$600 per ton of gas oil, traded on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) commodities exchange in London. This psychological barrier was last reached in December 2021, just under two months before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.
Once again, however, it was US President Donald Trump who was responsible for bringing life back to the global trading centers. For the first time, the US imposed sanctions directly on the two major Russian oil companies Lukoil and Rosneft, which has serious logistical implications. Major buyers such as China and India are being pilloried internationally, and this decision also has unpleasant consequences for countries such as Slovakia and Hungary. While the Chinese have sufficient economic clout and can afford to ignore any consequences, other buyers of cheap Russian oil will probably be forced to source their supplies on the regular market in future.
Parallel to Trump's current change of strategy to take a somewhat tougher stance on Russia, there are reports that the Americans and China are moving closer together again in the tariff dispute; a meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping is scheduled to take place this week. In principle, any economic and political thaw – especially among the major powers – naturally has the potential to positively influence the global economy. This then leads to an increase in demand for energy and, accordingly, higher prices.