28.01.2025
Market commentary on heating oil 28.01.2025
There was significant nervousness on the oil market in the lead-up to the presidential transition in the United States. The Chinese began to hesitate when it came to sanctioned goods from Iran and Russia, Ukraine blocked Russian gas flows to Slovakia, and in many regions, harsh winter weather contributed to a clear upward trend in prices.
Since Donald Trump has taken the reins, however, the situation has shifted once again. During his remote address at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Trump made a pointed and uncompromising public statement directed at OPEC and its partners, declaring that he expects lower oil prices from the oil production cartel. He also made it clear that he will personally do everything within his power to achieve this goal. The U.S. fracking industry is poised for a new boom, and the country is likely to begin rolling back many green economic regulations. All of this suggests that oil prices may continue to ease — a development that, of course, not everyone around the world welcomes. Producing countries have aligned their budgets with high profit margins, and climate-focused groups — especially in Western nations — see their efforts toward a new energy era being severely undercut by low oil prices.
Fundamentally, however, it remains to be seen whether Trump’s hardline tactics will succeed: past experience has shown time and again that not all global issues can be resolved with a deal.